Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 23.319325 25.611194 28.186203 31.328004 35.106720 39.571477 45.351297
2025-02-02 20.072167 23.046733 26.665128 31.513934 38.053171 46.927276 60.636775
2025-02-09 17.938920 21.284794 25.608847 31.862331 41.190346 55.675925 82.949405
2025-02-16 16.307719 19.834686 24.611183 31.961622 43.933551 65.092332 114.784472
2025-02-23 14.926226 18.490548 23.491210 31.571924 45.734043 73.891893 157.734798
2025-03-02 13.942425 17.552607 22.779932 31.617219 48.250571 85.722442 237.218557
2025-03-09 13.067673 16.661024 21.996281 31.356585 50.089157 97.529836 373.760836
2025-03-16 12.324442 15.880979 21.275076 31.048239 51.724357 110.469778 667.535527
2025-03-23 11.689292 15.200938 20.626484 30.742435 53.271650 125.109363 1593.220051
2025-03-30 11.164002 14.641412 20.107868 30.582637 55.126743 143.740712 16881.452513
2025-04-06 10.615883 14.004660 19.396603 29.931340 55.552732 157.641412 NaN
2025-04-13 10.456952 13.960913 19.676228 31.307320 61.995878 217.969768 NaN
2025-04-20 10.038446 13.481479 19.167268 30.980999 63.532843 255.614166 NaN
2025-04-27 9.716383 13.137385 18.867849 31.067489 66.496214 323.246923 NaN
2025-05-04 9.449469 12.865681 18.673327 31.359013 70.388139 440.066775 NaN
2025-05-11 9.176468 12.566683 18.402119 31.431360 73.625651 608.376170 NaN
2025-05-18 8.869264 12.193372 17.963139 31.040548 74.949839 789.616769 NaN
2025-05-25 8.635770 11.931587 17.714098 31.078631 78.178827 1253.754753 NaN
2025-06-01 8.386332 11.629895 17.366629 30.822475 80.070018 2025.629147 NaN
2025-06-08 8.149399 11.338424 17.019144 30.521445 81.690294 3845.555689 NaN
2025-06-15 7.928495 11.064688 16.688605 30.223581 83.266423 11527.609576 NaN
2025-06-22 7.736114 10.831948 16.423924 30.067935 85.602215 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 7.507870 10.527764 16.000179 29.434660 85.069209 NaN NaN